As the fourth quarter begins, MLCC enters its traditional procurement window. Unlike the previous general price increase, the industry's differentiation continues to deepen: high-specification materials are in short supply, while general basic materials remain stable. Demand has been released in downstream sectors such as new energy vehicles, AI servers, high-speed optical modules, drones, and humanoid robots, but the levels of market enthusiasm vary significantly across these sectors, and there is no overall price increase across all product categories.
1. Demand Breakdown in Downstream Sectors, AI Computing as the Main Focus of Q4
1. AI Servers + High-Speed Optical Modules Drive Demand for High-Capacity MLCCs
AI computing infrastructure development is the most critical growth driver for high-capacity MLCCs (such as 106/226/476/107 specifications).
During the fourth quarter, the industry experiences a concentrated delivery period, with 800G and 1.6T high-speed optical modules being rolled out in bulk. Each high-speed optical module requires a large number of high-stability MLCCs for power filtering. Meanwhile, the MLCC usage per unit in the new generation of AI servers has significantly increased, reaching tens of thousands of units per device, far exceeding that of traditional general-purpose servers.
With the large-scale expansion of GPU racks and continuous improvement in chip die density, the demand for high-capacity, low-ESR, X6S and other high-specification MLCCs continues to rise, showing a clear trend toward product premiumization.
From the demand side, the capital expenditures of major overseas cloud vendors are concentrated in the fourth quarter, and domestic intelligent computing center construction projects are being launched intensively, with downstream key clients showing strong willingness to lock production and stockpile inventory in advance.
On the supply side, the tight supply situation of high-end capacity continues. According to data from TrendForce, Samsung Electro-Mechanics raised the prices of high-end MLCCs in the fourth quarter by 10%-20%, and the delivery cycle for high-end products remains long, further verifying the sustained high market enthusiasm.
2. New Energy Vehicle Automotive MLCCs Show Steady Recovery, with Growth Focused on High-End Intelligent Driving
The number of MLCCs used in new energy vehicles is 5-6 times that of traditional fuel vehicles, and pure electric models can use up to 18,000 MLCCs per vehicle, with higher usage in high-end intelligent driving models. The fourth quarter is a key period for automakers to boost volume and finalize BOMs for next year's new models, with OEMs and Tier1 suppliers starting inventory preparation.
Key demand growth points are focused on AEC-Q200 automotive-grade MLCCs used in BMS, in-vehicle power supplies, and domain controllers. These components require high temperature resistance and high reliability, with long certification cycles and slow capacity expansion speed.
From an industry perspective, the demand for automotive-grade MLCCs shows structural differentiation: demand from traditional fuel vehicles and low-end new energy vehicles remains weak, while general automotive-grade MLCCs maintain stable demand, with no widespread shortage in the industry. Only high-end automotive-grade MLCCs supporting advanced intelligent driving show clear growth, highlighting their structural growth characteristics.
3. Drones & Humanoid Robots: Long-Term Potential Sectors, Limited Short-Term Volume
Consumer drones enter their peak procurement season in the fourth quarter, while industrial and inspection drone orders continue to be released. Humanoid robots gradually move into prototype mass production and small-scale deployment stages. Robot joint servos, controllers, power supplies, drone flight control systems, and power management boards all require miniaturized, high-reliability MLCCs.
From a volume perspective, the current market size of the drone and humanoid robot sectors is still relatively small, and they cannot drive the overall trend of the MLCC market in the short term. However, as a high-growth incremental sector, the industry's implementation process will continue to consume the capacity of small, high-reliability MLCCs, making it one of the core growth directions for the medium- to long-term development of the MLCC industry.
2. Q4 Supply-Demand, Price, and Procurement Cycle Analysis
Supply Side: International top manufacturers such as Murata and Samsung Electro-Mechanics continue to optimize their capacity structure, actively reducing low-margin general-purpose MLCC capacity, and prioritizing core capacity and production line resources for high-value-added high-end products such as AI and automotive-grade MLCCs. The overall trend of structural adjustment in capacity is clear.
This capacity strategy continues to be implemented, directly forming a two-tiered market supply structure:
1. High-end high-capacity MLCC capacity remains tight, with extended industry delivery cycles and stable, resilient product prices;
2. Mid-to-low-end general-purpose MLCC capacity is abundant, and common consumer-grade parts still face continued price decline pressure.
Price Level: The price increase of MLCCs in the fourth quarter shows a very strong structural characteristic, with the price increase focusing only on high-capacity, high-reliability dedicated parts for AI servers, high-speed optical modules, and high-end automotive-grade applications. In contrast, ordinary consumer and low-end general-purpose MLCC categories, even during the traditional industry peak season, face difficulty in significant price increases due to sufficient supply.
Procurement Cycle Level: The overall procurement rhythm in the fourth quarter shows the characteristics of "pre-locking orders and controlling inventory at year-end." During the early stage of the fourth quarter, downstream end customers concentrate on locking orders and batch procurement, resulting in high market order activity. As the middle and late December approaches, downstream companies will start active inventory control, reducing procurement volume as needed, and the industry orders are likely to slow down compared to the previous month.
In Conclusion
The core logic of the fourth quarter MLCC market is structural demand dividends, not a general price increase cycle. From the demand side, AI servers and high-speed optical modules are the core growth drivers of this round of market movement. The steady demand from new energy vehicles provides a market bottom support, while emerging sectors such as humanoid robots and drones continue to contribute long-term growth space.
On the procurement and selection side, it is essential to accurately distinguish part attributes: high-capacity server parts and high-end automotive-grade parts have tight supply and delivery, with tight lead times and stable pricing; general-purpose MLCCs have ample supply, limited price increase potential, and a generally stable trend.
